Summary of Aviation Activity Forecasts
One of the first steps in preparing an airport master plan is to forecast unconstrained future aviation activity. Unconstrained forecasts are not constrained by any assumptions about the availability (or lack of availability) of existing and/or future Airport facilities, such as aircraft gates or runways. In other words, these forecasts represent the “natural” activity that would occur at OAK, absent any constraints on the availability of facilities.
The unconstrained forecast of airline passengers in 2025 is likely not achievable without an additional air carrier runway, which is not recommended in this Master Plan. Estimating constrained airline passenger demand for 2025 (e.g., given capacity limitations of the existing South Field runway) is difficult and dependent on many future variables.
Constrained airline passenger forecasts are dependent on many factors, including the types of airplanes the airlines choose to fly (i.e., fleet mix and the number of seats per airplane), assumed taxiway and other airfield improvements, amount of delay that the airlines and airline passengers are willing to tolerate, air travel market constraints, air traffic control rules and procedures, required aircraft-to-aircraft separations due to wake vortices, etc., all of which are likely to change between now and 2025. The following table summarizes the unconstrained Master Plan forecasts:
|Million Annual Passengers (MAP)||14.1||18||30(1)|
|Daily Airline Operations(2)||430||542||N/A|
|Million Annual Tons (MAT)||0.7||0.9||1.5|
|Total Daily Operations(2)||938||1,140||N/A|
(1) Unconstrained, could not be accommodated without additional runway facilities, which are not recommended in this Master Plan.
(2) An operation is a take-off or landing.
(3) In 2004, a new helicopter flight training school opened at OAK North Field. The school is ramping up training classes and flight operations through 2006. During this period, the number of helicopter operations is anticipated to grow from between 2,000 to 4,000 to just over 34,000 annual operations. After this ramp-up period, it is anticipated that helicopter operations would grow 1% annually (no additional helicopter flight training schools are anticipated at OAK North Field). Most of the helicopter training flights are conducted over Airport property.
N/A - not available (the number of aircraft operations in 2025 cannot be predicted with reliability and is dependent on many future variables).